SPRING BUDGET 2020 - BRIEFING

Technical Notes

“….get it done” was a recurrent phrase in the Budget speech of the new Chancellor, Rishi Sunak. It could equally have been “get it spent” or “get it borrowed” as Mr Sunak announced a raft of spending initiatives with few supporting tax increases.

His performance did not follow the standard playbook for the first Budget after a general election.   Such set pieces have generally been when a Chancellor takes advantage of his distance from the next visit to the polls to deliver the bitter medicine of tax rises.  However, with the threat to the global economy caused by the coronavirus pandemic these were not normal times.  The Office for Budget Responsibility(OBR) was expected to cut projected UK economic growth even before the virus emerged.  Its premeasures forecasts were all closed by 25 February, meaning that the coronavirus effect was “largely confined to a modestly weaker outlook for growth in world trade and the UK’s export markets”.

Mr Sunak had the benefit of seeing what happened since that date and clearly decided that the medicine required was a large dose of tonic, rather than tax.  He announced a total package of fresh spending for 2020/21 of £30 billion, of which £12 billion was directly attributed to countering the impact of coronavirus on the UK economy and NHS finances.

Total government borrowing was increased for the next five years by over £110 billion as a result of decisions taken in this Budget.  But this is not the end of the story, as another Budget is due in the autumn.   By then the consequences of coronavirus should be clearer and we may see other topics addressed, such as inheritance tax reform, which were understandably put on hold this time around.

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