Summary of Quarterly Economic and Investment Update Conference Call

Investment Notes

Market sentiment continues to be influenced by the ebbs and flows of interest rate expectations. The path of monetary policy will depend on economic data in due course, but it appears we are close to the peak of interest rates. GDP growth in major economies has been surprisingly resilient, particularly in the US, though there are signs economic activity is slowing. As we move into 2024, we may see more restrictive fiscal policy, after the expansionary policy of the pandemic and energy crisis years, and the full impact of higher interest rates will continue to be felt by borrowers and consumers.

It has become clear the rebound in Chinese economic activity following its Covid reopening is proving short-lived. A Chinese economic slowdown risks destabilising an already serious downturn in its real estate market. In addition, it would have a significant impact on overall global growth, given China is the world’s 2nd largest economy; this could mean we see much slower global GDP growth over the next two to three decades than the last two to three.

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