Both we and financial markets were surprised by the result of yesterday’s referendum. “Remain” had regained a lead in the opinion polls as the vote approached, so stock markets and sterling had been rising on the assumption the UK would remain in the EU.
Many stock markets were close to all-time highs a year ago, but have subsequently declined against a backdrop of increased volatility; the FTSE All-World index ended the twelve month period to 31 May 2016 lower by 0.2% in sterling terms.
It has been our long-standing expectation that the UK will vote to stay in the EU at the referendum on Thursday 23 June 2016. This judgement has been based on the belief that the British electorate is internationalist in nature and would respond to the exhortations of political leaders to continue with EU membership.
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