SUMMARY OF QUARTERLY ECONOMIC AND INVESTMENT UPDATE CONFERENCE CALL

The call provided an in-depth update on economic developments and financial markets against a backdrop of ongoing trade tensions.

With respect to trade tariffs and US foreign policy, the 90-day pause in US tariffs by President Trump in April expired on 9 July.  Since then, several new trade agreements have emerged.  The EU and Japan have reached deals with the US, mitigating the earlier threat of extreme tariffs.  However, new baseline tariffs (10–20%) still represent the most significant trade restrictions since the 1930s.  Negotiations with China are complex, and effective tariffs on Chinese goods still exceed 30%.  Further punitive measures could be enacted after 12 August if no deal is reached.

With respect to US Fiscal Policy, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” permanently extends Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and increases spending in border security, defence and energy, while cutting healthcare funding.  It could drive the US budget deficit up to 7% of GDP over the next decade (up from a projected 5%).  Tariff revenues are unlikely to offset this, as much of the tariff burden falls on US businesses and consumers.

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