SUMMARY OF QUARTERLY ECONOMIC AND INVESTMENT UPDATE CONFERENCE CALL

The call provided an in-depth update on economic developments and financial markets against a backdrop of ongoing geopolitical challenges.

It was highlighted that geopolitics is likely to be the main driver behind the outlook for the world economy.  Normal patterns of economic and business cycles are being disrupted by political interference, and therefore forecasting the economic outlook has become more difficult.  Despite a challenging backdrop, stock markets progressed positively.

With respect to trade, over the last few months, the US has concluded several preliminary bilateral deals, which have in some cases amended the across-the-board tariffs originally announced in April.  Most important are deals with the EU, Japan and Korea.  However, negotiations with China are proving more problematic; the lower tariffs announced in July were extended into November, as negotiations continued, but following the imposition by Beijing of restrictions on the export of rare earths, President Trump threatened to reinstate an additional tariff of 100% on Chinese goods exports, and to restrict exports to China of Boeing aircraft parts.  This threatened the return of the trade war started in April, though more conciliatory statements have since started to emerge.

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Ref: FP2025-582b